The Global Annual to Decadal Climate Update is issued annually by the World Meteorological Organization (WMO). It provides a synthesis of the global annual to decadal predictions produced by the WMO-designated Global Producing Centres and other contributing centres for 2024-2028.
According to the latest report, there is an 80 percent likelihood that the annual average global temperature will temporarily exceed 1.5°C above pre-industrial levels for at least one of the next five years.
The global mean near-surface temperature for each year between 2024 and 2028 is predicted to be between 1.1°C and 1.9°C higher than the 1850-1900 baseline. The report states that it is likely (86%) that at least one of these years will set a new temperature record, beating 2023 which is currently the warmest year.
Key messages
- 80% likelihood of at least one year temporarily exceeding 1.5°C between 2024-2028
- Short-term (annual) warming does not equate to a permanent breach of the lower 1.5°C Paris Agreement goal
- Likely that at least one of next five years will be the warmest on record, beating 2023
- Report highlights urgency of climate action
